Quote of the Week: The Rules of Prediction

People predict by making up stories
People predict very little and explain everything
People live under uncertainty whether they like it or not
People believe they can tell the future if they work hard enough
People accept any explanation as long as it fits the fact
The handwriting was on the wall, it was just the ink that was invisible

People often work hard to obtain information they already have and avoid new knowledge
Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilisitic Universe
In this match, surprises are expected
Everything that has already happened must have been inevitable

notes from: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 
excerpted from The Undoing Project: Michael Lewis






photo by Angela Roma